Tensions between China and the United States have reached record levels since the countries normalized diplomatic relations more than four decades ago. The US government's order for China to close its consulate in Houston being just the latest example. Many specialists are worried that a war between China and the USA will eventually break out.
In defence, trade, technology, human rights and other categories, actions and retaliation by one side or the other have escalated sharply under the administration of the President. Trump. This, despite his repeated expressions of admiration for Chinese President Xi Jinping. With President Biden, this trend is reinforced. Moreover in time with the key to a possible war between China and the USA.
Growing sanctions that can lead to war between China and the US
The administration is currently evaluating a blanket ban on travel to the United States by the 92 million members of China's ruling Communist Party. Expulsion of any member currently in the country is also a possibility. This situation would likely incite retaliation against U.S. travel and second homes in China. .
“I think we are in a dangerous and precipitous downward spiral, not without a cause, but without the proper diplomatic skills to stop it,” said Orville Schell, director of the Center on USA-China Relations at the Asia Society. The gravity of the confrontation, he said, “broke the wall down, moving from specific and solvable challenges to a clash of systems and values.
Craig Allen, chairman of the US-China Business Council, said he was alarmed by the growing invective from two superpowers. Who remember, represent 40% of global economic production. If these two powers are yelling at each other and slamming doors, then the world is a very unstable place. Companies are not able to plan.
Here's a look at what's happened in recent years to escalate tensions:
The coronavirus and anti-Chinese racism
Mr. Trump and his subordinates have blamed China for the spread of the coronavirus. The one first appeared in the central city of Wuhan late last year. They have repeatedly described the virus in racist and stigmatizing terms, calling it the Wuhan virus, China virus and Kung flu.
On July 4, Mr. Trump declared that China “must be held fully accountable”. The administration also canceled funding and ordered sever ties with the World Health Organization. This, accusing him of having encouraged shortcomings in China's initial response to the epidemic.
For its part, China rejected the administration's attacks on the virus and criticized the US government's poor response to the outbreak. Chinese propagandists have also promoted the counter-theory without any evidence. According to this, American soldiers could have been the initial source of the virus during a visit to Wuhan.
To date, no one can therefore yet say what the source of the Covid is.
A severe test on commercial links
Mr Trump was elected in 2016 partly on his accusations that China was exploiting the country's trade relationship with the United States by selling the country far more than it was buying. In power, he decreed a series of punitive tariffs on Chinese products, and China fought back, in a trade war that has now been going on for several years. While a truce was effectively declared in January with the signing of what the administration called a “Phase 1” trade deal, most tariffs have not been eased.
US ships and planes in the South China Sea in July, in a photo released by the US Navy.
US ships and planes in the South China Sea in July, in a photo released by the US Navy.
The Trump administration has increasingly challenged China's assertions of sovereignty and control over much of the South China Sea, including vital sea lanes. Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, which described China as a major security threat, ruled that most of China's claims in the South China Sea were "completely illegal", creating potential military clashes between Chinese and US naval forces in the South China Sea. Peaceful. These tensions can at any time cause a war to break out between China and the USA!
A growing battle around technology
China has long been accused by successive US administrations of stealing American technology. Trump's White House has escalated the charges by seeking an international blacklist of Huawei, China's largest tech company, calling it a front for China's efforts to infiltrate other countries' telecommunications infrastructure for purposes strategic.
The company's chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, has been detained in Canada since December 2018 on an extradition warrant to the United States for fraud. Britain last week said it was siding with the United States in banning Huawei products from its high-speed wireless network.
The expulsions of journalists are glaring signs of a possible war between China and the United States
Accusing Chinese state media of fomenting propaganda, the Trump administration severely limited the number of Chinese citizens who could work for Chinese news outlets in the United States. China retaliated by ordering the expulsion of journalists from The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. She also took other steps that suggested new barriers to US press access to China were looming. The New York Times, concerned about the possibility of additional restrictions on journalists working in China, announced last week that it was relocating much of its main news center from Hong Kong to Seoul, South Korea.
Student expulsions
The Trump administration has moved to cancel visas for thousands of Chinese students and scholars in the United States. At least for those with direct ties to universities affiliated with the People's Liberation Army, according to US officials knowledgeable about the planning. Such expulsions portend possible further restrictions on education. Here too, the Chinese government could retaliate by imposing its own visa bans on Americans.
Suppression of democratic freedoms in Hong Kong
Last November, Mr. Trump, with bipartisan support, signed legislation that could penalize Chinese and Hong Kong officials who crack down on dissent by democracy advocates in Hong Kong, the former British colony and Asian financial hub to which the China has guaranteed a certain autonomy.
In May, Mr Trump said he was taking steps to end Hong Kong's preferential trading status with the United States. This, after China passed a sweeping new security law. The latter could be used to stifle any form of expression deemed seditious by China. Chinese authorities have denounced the measures and vowed to retaliate.
Repression of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang
This month, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on a number of Chinese officials, including a senior Communist Party member, for human rights abuses committed by China in the Xinjiang region against the largely Muslim Uyghur minority in the country.
Beijing has vowed retaliation against US institutions and individuals it deems guilty of "flagrant" conduct in matters concerning Xinjiang. A vast western swath of China where authorities have placed a million people in labor camps and imposed intrusive surveillance on others.
What will be the continuation of the tensions which can lead to a war between China and the USA
Currently, it is difficult to predict with certainty the evolution of tensions between these two countries. However, the trigger may well be Taiwan. China is very specific on this subject, “It will not hesitate to go to war if Taiwan declares its independence”. In this context, the USA seems to be playing with fire by confirming its support for Taiwan if the latter were attacked by China.
According to these last elements and the various points of divergence, an armed conflict between these two powers is unfortunately not an impossible scenario. The future could therefore hold many unpleasant surprises for us.
Why invest in a bunker in case of war between China and the USA
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